OPEC+ to Increase Oil Production from September, Completing Rollback of Voluntary Output Cuts

LONDON, Aug. 2
OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production from September, marking the completion of a key phase in the gradual reversal of voluntary output cuts that have shaped global energy markets over the past several years.

The producer alliance approved an increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning next month. The decision was reached during a meeting held on Sunday and represents the final step in unwinding a voluntary production reduction program introduced in 2023, under which participating countries had collectively withheld around 1.65 million bpd from the market.

According to market analysts, several production increases announced by OPEC+ throughout this year have had only a limited impact on global supply. Ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Ukraine, disruptions to export infrastructure, and logistical constraints have prevented a significant portion of the planned output from reaching international markets.

The latest agreement was endorsed by seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. Their decision effectively concludes the phased rollback of the voluntary production cuts. The United Arab Emirates, which previously participated in the arrangement, is no longer involved following its departure from OPEC in May.

What Comes Next for OPEC+?

Prior to the meeting, several industry sources suggested that OPEC+ could consider pausing further production increases during the final quarter of 2026. However, the group's official statement did not provide any guidance regarding output policy for the period between October and December.

Jorge Leon, an analyst at energy research firm Rystad Energy, said the alliance now faces a new challenge following the completion of its production-restoration campaign.

According to Leon, the primary concern moving forward will be managing the risk of excess supply if export flows normalize and more crude reaches the market. With voluntary cuts now fully unwound, OPEC+ has little immediate incentive to accelerate further production adjustments, making a fourth-quarter pause a plausible scenario.

Concerns Over Energy Infrastructure Security

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which also met on Sunday, discussed the impact of recent conflicts in the Middle East on global energy security.

The committee expressed concern over attacks targeting energy facilities, noting that damage to critical infrastructure can require substantial financial resources and extended repair periods. Such disruptions, it warned, could have significant implications for global oil supply and market stability.

Additional Production Restrictions Remain in Place

Despite the September production increase, OPEC+ still maintains another layer of output restrictions affecting most member countries.

These cuts, totaling approximately 2 million bpd, were originally introduced in 2022 and are currently scheduled to remain in effect until the end of this year. As a result, global oil supplies will continue to be influenced by the alliance's broader market-balancing strategy.

Preparing for 2027 Production Quotas

OPEC+ is currently conducting a comprehensive review of member countries' oil production capacities. The findings will serve as the basis for establishing new production baselines and quotas for 2027.

Industry observers expect negotiations to be complex. Several members, including Iraq, are likely to seek higher production quotas to reflect expanded production capabilities and increased investment in upstream energy projects.

As a result, future quota discussions could become one of the most significant economic and diplomatic challenges facing the alliance in the coming years.

OPEC+ currently consists of 21 member nations, including the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allied producers. In recent years, however, monthly production management has largely been driven by a smaller group of core member states.

The next meeting of the seven key producers is scheduled for September 6, when policymakers are expected to assess global oil demand, supply conditions, and geopolitical developments before determining the alliance's next course of action.